Carbon-free electricity has never been more plentiful—wind and solar power has grown faster than experts predicted over the past two decades—but it’s still not enough to halt the rise in coal- and gas-fired generation.
That’s because global demand for electricity is growing faster than the demand for clean energy, leaving fossil fuels to make up the shortfall.
Scientists say carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector need to be reduced rapidly to avoid dangerous levels of global warming, but the move has resulted in emissions from the power sector increasing.
Areas where fossil fuel generation is still growing
Note: Total electricity generation is shown up to 2022 for countries where electricity generation data is available up to that year. For other countries, data is shown up to 2021. For more information on how categories are determined, see the bottom of this page.
Much of the growth in electricity demand is coming from rapidly developing countries such as China and India, where new coal-fired power plants are continuing to come online alongside wind and solar farms to support their rapid economic growth. But many developed countries are also failing to transition away from fossil fuels fast enough to meet their climate change goals.
Even on today’s trajectory, many experts expect electricity generation from fossil fuels to peak globally in the next few years. It’s already declining in major economies such as the United States and Europe, and analysts expect China, the world’s largest power producer, to start reducing its coal-fired generation soon.
The future of the world’s climate will depend greatly on what happens next.
Experts widely agree that to meet the world’s self-imposed climate goal of limiting temperature rise to “well below 2 degrees,” ideally to 1.5 degrees, fossil fuel electricity generation needs to peak and then be rapidly reduced in favor of carbon-free sources like wind and solar. (The world has already warmed about 1.2 degrees since pre-industrial times.)
“The big question is whether countries can speed up the pace of renewable energy deployment and “actually enable deep and rapid carbon emissions reductions,” rather than just slowly reducing power sector emissions,” said Dave Jones, an electricity analyst at Ember, a London-based think tank.
The issue will be central to the global climate summit later this month.
The stakes are huge.
The power sector is already the world’s largest source of planet-warming emissions, and plans to decarbonize many other parts of the global economy, including transport, buildings and industry, also depend on connecting to cleaner electricity.
Understanding how electricity production in the world’s major electricity producers – both wealthy and fast-growing – has changed over recent decades helps explain the global situation today and sheds light on the climate challenges ahead.
Declining fossil fuels
Fossil fuel electricity generation, particularly coal, has been declining for years in the United States and much of Europe, and is even starting to decline in coal-dependent Australia.
The rapid growth of renewable energies has played a major role.
Wind turbines and solar panels generated 22% of the European Union’s electricity last year, up from less than 1% two decades ago. The United States generated 15% of its electricity from wind and solar energy last year, slightly above the global average.
A surge in cheap renewable energy has helped replace coal-fired power in Europe, and in the United States, natural gas, which is less polluting when burned but still warms the climate, has played a key role in coal’s decline, along with fast-growing wind and solar power.
Lower overall electricity demand also contributed to the decline in fossil fuel generation.
In wealthy countries such as the United States and many European countries, electricity use grew rapidly over the last century but began to level off or fall in the 2000s due to improvements in energy efficiency and the outsourcing of heavy industry.
But neither the United States nor the European Union are on track to meet the world’s ambitious 1.5°C climate goal. Both major electricity producers recently passed legislation aimed at expanding renewable energy, but growing economic headwinds and other challenges threaten to slow the transition even though energy experts say it needs to be accelerated.
Growth with coal
So far, the trends have been very different in countries with fast-growing economies, most notably China.
China overtook the United States to become the world’s largest electricity producer in 2010 and now produces nearly one-third of the world’s electricity. (China’s per capita electricity production is still much lower than that of the United States.)
For decades, the country’s burgeoning electricity demand has been met mainly by coal, the most polluting fossil fuel. Coal-fired power generation has continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace, even as China has significantly expanded zero-carbon electricity in recent years, primarily from wind and solar power.
China’s power sector is currently approaching a turning point.
Energy analysts expect carbon-free electricity to begin to grow domestically to displace coal-fired power in the next few years, and China’s outsized share of global electricity means its coal generation will likely peak by the largest amount in the world.
After peaking, it is less clear how quickly coal-fired power generation and associated emissions will decline. China said in its recent agreement with the United States that it agreed to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy to “accelerate the displacement of coal, oil and gas power generation” and to pursue “meaningful” power sector emissions reductions over the next decade. But it remains to be seen whether China will stop approving new coal-fired power plants.
In other rapidly developing countries, many of them in Asia, coal still accounts for the majority of electricity generation.
India, the world’s most populous country, has strong renewable energy goals but government officials say it still needs coal to grow its economy and provide reliable, affordable electricity to millions, while Indonesia says it could phase out coal-fired power by 2040 if it gets enough financial support from wealthy countries to build out cleaner energy.
Faran Rana, associate program officer at the International Renewable Energy Agency, said financing wind and solar power projects remains a challenge for developing countries. “When you look at life cycle costs, renewables are much more cost-competitive with fossil fuel generation,” he said. “But upfront costs are a barrier.”
Millions of people around the world continue to live without access to any form of electricity.
Nancy Hagel, a research fellow at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, said that while significant global challenges remain, the rapid growth of solar and wind power so far shows that “this transition is doable and is underway.”
Every country has a story
Below we present trends in the world’s major electricity producing countries, listed in alphabetical order.
Note: These charts show countries on a unique scale, making it easier to see individual trends and electricity mix. Switch the view to “Compare totals” to see which countries play a bigger role. The top 60 electricity producing countries are shown with data available through 2022.
Chile is one of the few countries where a significant portion of its growing electricity demand is met by renewable energies.
Japan shut down its nuclear reactors after the Fukushima disaster in 2011, but has recently begun to reverse course.
Growing electricity demand in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East is being met almost entirely by oil and gas.
South Africa has struggled to provide reliable electricity to its residents, which compounds the decline of coal-fired power documented here.
Data Sources and Notes
All graphs and maps are based on Ember electricity generation data. Data displayed here reflects electricity generated domestically and does not include imports or exports, which can play a large role in many countries. Data includes grid-connected rooftop solar PV, but does not include personal-use solar PV that is not connected to the grid (“behind the meter”). 2022 data is an estimate. More information on Ember’s methodology can be found here.
In the chart, the hydroelectric category includes electricity generation from renewable sources other than wind and solar, but hydroelectricity almost always dominates the category. Similarly, the petroleum category includes electricity generation from other fossil fuels.
In this map, a country is classified as having “mostly clean” electricity if less than 15% of its electricity generation in the most recent year available came from fossil fuel sources. A country is classified as having “declining fossil fuel generation” if fossil fuel generation has declined since reaching a peak at least five years ago and the trend is not solely due to declining demand. Countries where fossil fuel generation has remained stable in recent years or where no credible trend could be identified are classified as “stable or other trends,” as well as several other patterns that do not fit clearly into other categories. Countries with “growing fossil fuel generation” are those where fossil fuel generation has not yet peaked.