The would-be assassin who opened fire at Donald J. Trump’s campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13 was able to target the former president before a nearby counter-sniper team arrived in time to block the shot.
The New York Times used drone photos to build a 3D model that recreated the line of sight of the shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, and three teams of counter-shooters (two federal, one local). The analysis showed that Crooks, 20, who likely flew a drone to scout the scene on the morning of the rally, hit one of the few blind spots within range of Trump’s rifle, raising questions about serious flaws in the security planning for the rally.
Secret Service Director Kimberly A. Cheatle resigned on Tuesday, a day after refusing to answer lawmakers’ questions about visibility and security lapses during a contentious congressional hearing.
What Northburn’s Secret Service counter-sniper saw
This is the gaze that one of two Secret Service teams apparently caught just minutes before Crooks opened fire.
The attackers hid from two trees and the slope of the roof of a warehouse complex owned by AGR International, which the Secret Service later said was outside its designated security area.
One Secret Service team stationed in the far north barn behind Trump was facing the gunman 30 minutes before the riot, according to video posted to social media and reviewed by The New York Times. In one scene, a team member can be seen standing and peering in the direction of the shooter through binoculars.
The Times obtained exclusive drone footage three days after the shooting, which offers a glimpse into the extent to which the trees obstructed the counter-sniper gunman’s view.
The New York Times
NOTE: This video was taken approximately 7 feet from where the counter-sniper team was positioned on the roof of the north barn. The shooter’s location was identified by a cone visible among the tree branches that investigators had placed after the shooting.
The Times used a spatial technique called a viewshed analysis to calculate what areas were visible from the counter-sniper team’s location to the north, taking into account obstructions such as trees and buildings. The analysis confirmed that as Crooks prepared to fire his first shot, he chose a prime spot that was virtually invisible to the counter-sniper team, which had been pointing his way for a long time.
What the Secret Service’s counter-sniper in Southburn saw
A second Secret Service counter-sniper team was positioned on the roof of a barn further southwest, initially facing away from the shooter and monitoring a different area, according to videos posted on social media.
The video shows counter-snipers turning towards the shooter 1 minute 35 seconds before the first shot was fired. When they turned, this is what they saw:
But the Times’ analysis found that the slope of the warehouse roof the gunman chose would have made it difficult for the southern counter-sniper team to see him climbing up: Only the top of Crooks’ head would have been visible to either Secret Service counter-sniper team, and only if the gunman was crouching behind the highest part of the roof.
Note: Illustration shows conservative dimensions of the shooter’s prone body.
The New York Times
Forty-two seconds after the shooting began, a Secret Service agent is heard on video saying, “The shooter is down.” The Secret Service later confirmed that Crooks was shot and killed by a Secret Service countersniper, likely from the south barn, where they were best positioned.
What the local police counter-sniper saw
A third group of three counter-snipers from the department, who were not authorized to comment, were stationed in a neighboring building in the same warehouse complex as the shooter, a local police official said.
The building where the countersnipers were located had windows that faced the roof of the building where Crooks climbed, but it is unclear whether they were assigned to any of those windows that day.
Law enforcement officials said the counter-sniper tasked with monitoring the crowd was positioned in a second-floor window on the other side of the building, far from the shooter. Here’s the counter-sniper’s vantage point facing the rally participants:
The view from inside the building suggests the shooter would have been out of sight of the countersniper forces.
Video and photos reviewed by The Times showed what was most likely a fourth local police counter-sniper team about 1,000 feet from where Crooks was on the roof. The team was seen multiple times in the hours and minutes before Trump began his speech. The Times could not confirm whether the team fired any shots during the shooting.
What the shooter saw
The shooter was on the roof of a warehouse, less than 500 feet from Trump and in full view from an elevated position.
The slight slope of the roof would have allowed him to hide from Secret Service countersnipers most of the time as he crawled to the top, and once at the top, two trees would have provided him with concealment from the countersniper team to the north.
Investigators said Crooks appeared to have used a drone to survey the rally before the shooting, though the Secret Service had not sought its use to provide agents with aerial photos of the rally, Cheatle testified Monday.
Unhindered, Crooks fired multiple shots in Trump’s direction, striking him in the right ear. The rally attendee sitting in the bleachers closest to the gunman was shot in the head and died. Two other people sitting in the top row of the south side bleachers were also shot but survived.
Other security blunders
The Butler Farm Show grounds and the warehouse complex are separated by two rows of chain-link fencing. It is unclear whether the Secret Service used the fence to demarcate a security perimeter, but the agency later acknowledged that the AGR warehouse was excluded from the security zone.
Source: Pennsylvania Spatial Data Access (PASDA)
The New York Times
The warehouses, adjacent to state and highways, are open to the public, and a video taken an hour before the shooting shows Crooks standing in front of the warehouse that would later become his base of operations.
Dozens of officers from multiple agencies were at the scene at the Butler Farm Show, where the rally was taking place. Secret Service Director Cheatle said Monday that the AGR complex was under surveillance at the time of the shooting, but did not say who was on guard.
Cheatle said at Monday’s hearing that the FBI investigation also found that a local SWAT team had spotted Crooks on the roof of the warehouse about 18 minutes before Trump was due to take the stage. The Secret Service had been alerted via radio transmissions to a possible “suspicious” individual but did not prevent Trump from going onstage.
methodology
The New York Times flew a drone over the site of the July 16 assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, and used the drone’s images to create a 3D model of the scene. The paper also used measurements collected on the ground, satellite imagery, and photos and videos posted to social media to support the model’s dimensions. The locations of the shooter, counter-sniper team, and victims were based on locations the paper identified from social media videos.
To determine each countersniper team’s line of sight in the 3D model, The Times conducted a viewshed analysis, a spatial technique that takes into account obstacles and calculates what areas are visible from a particular location in 3D. For this analysis, The Times used a 1,000-foot radius from the countersniper’s location, encompassing both the Butler Farm Show grounds and the AGR warehouse complex. In the 3D model, The Times placed cameras at the approximate elevations of the shooter and the countersniper team to show what their views would have looked like from those vantage points. The shooter’s exact location in the rendering is based on where his body was found after he was shot. Details of the scopes used on the rifles of the shooter and the countersniper are unknown, and the 3D rendering is approximate.