As investors build their portfolios for the November presidential election, some experts say they might want to start thinking of a red broom sweeping a parking lot.
In other words, prepare for a Republican landslide victory this fall.
“That’s true. [a sweep]”If President Joe Biden leaves office and former President Trump continues to rally support after his near-assassination, that could make the election even more favorable,” Brian Gardner, Stifel’s chief Washington policy strategist, told Yahoo Finance editor-in-chief Brian Sozzi on his Opening Bid podcast (video above).
A Republican landslide victory would mean Trump would regain the White House and Republicans would control both the House and the Senate.
“I think there was always a pretty good chance that Republicans would win the Senate,” Gardner continued. “And the situation that emerged in the debate with President Biden a few weeks ago is probably going to dampen Democratic enthusiasm and turnout and hurt some of our Senate candidates. I think the House was always a little bit in doubt. There was a legitimate scenario, a plausible scenario, that Democrats could take the House even if Trump won. But I think that’s becoming less realistic.”
Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump attends the third day of the Republican National Convention at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wednesday, July 17, 2024. (Photo by Associated Press/Evan Vucci) (The Associated Press)
A week ago, there was an assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania that left one person dead and two seriously injured. Trump, who sustained an ear injury, returned to rallies in time for this week’s Republican National Convention. His approval rating has risen since the attack.
Meanwhile, Biden was diagnosed with COVID-19 just this week and is facing growing pressure from his party to step down.
Given the tumultuous political news cycle over the past few weeks, much attention is now focused on what a reelection of President Trump will mean for the markets.
Investors have reason to be optimistic about Trump 2.0.
First, markets have a history of doing well under Trump administrations: The S&P 500 rose 70% during his term, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 57%.
Terence Gardner Jr., a portfolio strategist at CJ Lawrence, believes that President Trump’s tax cuts will be extended through 2025, which will benefit businesses and households.
Other experts Yahoo Finance spoke to suggested that President Trump’s tough stance on illegal immigration could lead to more job opportunities for Americans.
Meanwhile, President Trump has said he will boost domestic energy drilling to curb inflation.
Gardner says this should be a boost for industrial companies.
But with interest rate cuts on the horizon, higher tariffs or an escalating trade war with China could put further pressure on inflation. Rising labor costs could also have an impact on prices, although President Trump has argued that immigration restrictions would lower inflation.
The story continues
Stifel’s Gardner said there are “surprisingly many similarities” between what Biden and Trump could accomplish in a second term, regardless of whether they win by a landslide or a victory, describing the impact of each candidate as “different shades of gray, but essentially the same outcome.”
Three times each week, Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Brian Sozzi holds insightful, market-focused conversations and chats with some of the biggest names in business on Opening Bid. Check out more episodes on our video hub, available on your favorite streaming service, or listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
In the Opening Bid episode below, Stephen Moore, longtime economic advisor to President Trump, discusses the economic roadmap for President Trump’s next administration.
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