Iowa
Can.
Kee.
Oh.
Alaska
Arizona
arc.
California
Colo.
Connecticut
Florida.
Yeh.
Hawaii
Idaho
disease.
Indy
Texas
Utah
Verton
La.
Maine
Maryland
mass.
Michigan.
Minnesota
Escape.
Mo.
Mon.
Nebraska 3rd CD
NH
New Jersey
New Mexico
new york
North Carolina
N.D.
Ohio
okra.
ore.
Pa.
RI
SC
SD
Tennessee.
Virginia.
wash.
West Virginia
Whis.
Wyoming.
Dell.
Nev.
Nebraska 1st CD
Nebraska 2nd place
Main 1
According to the latest assessment from the Cook Political Report, the presidential race is most likely to come down to voters in 10 states that remain competitive.
Democratic-dominated states
Republican-dominated states
These states are the most competitive in the presidential election.
Pro-Democrat.
Tosup
Lean rep.
Note: Nebraska and Maine award two electoral votes each to the statewide winner and one to the most voted candidate in each district. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is rated “Democrat-leaning” by the Cook Political Report.
There are numerous combinations of states that could allow either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump to surpass the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win.
If both candidates win all of the states in the sure, favorable and unfavorable categories, the race will narrow down to the six close states highlighted in yellow. Harris would need 44 electoral votes from those states to win, compared to just 35 for Trump.
Tosup
State Election 2020 2024 Vote Results
Pennsylvania
19
D+1.2
Harris <1 ›
Georgia
16
D+0.2
Not enough votes
Michigan
15
D+2.8
Harris +2 ›
Arizona
11
D+0.3
Not enough votes
Wisconsin
10
D+0.6
Harris +2 ›
Nevada
6
D+2.4
Not enough votes
All six of the close states were won by Joseph R. Biden Jr. by narrow margins in 2020. If the race narrows down to these states, Trump has an advantage in the electoral calculations. Trump can win just two electorally crucial swing states, Pennsylvania and Georgia, but Harris’ paths to victory each include at least three states. If Trump loses Georgia but wins Pennsylvania, Harris will need at least three swing states in addition to Georgia to win.
Of course, some of the states that are currently rated as leaning or likely to lean Democratic or Republican could also come into play.
Lean Democrat
State EV 2020
Minnesota
Minnesota
10
D+7.1
Nebraska District 2
Nebraska 2
1
D+6.5
New Hampshire
NH
4
D+0.4
Republican leaning
State EV 2020
North Carolina
North Carolina
16
1.3 times
Likelihood of Democratic support
State EV 2020
New Mexico
New Mexico
5
D+10.8
Virginia
Virginia.
13
D+10.1
Maine
Maine
2
D+9.1
Likely Republican support
State EV 2020
Florida
Florida.
30
R +3.4
Maine District 2
Me 2
1
Rate +7.9
Texas
Texas
40
5.6th place