In this extremely close election race, Democrat Tim Walz and Republican J.D. It’s a debate in which the winner or loser could be decided in a matter of weeks. .
Vice-presidential candidates typically host pompous undercards, but polls show a seesaw race in each battleground state and Tuesday’s meeting in New York could be the final debate of the 2024 campaign. Given the high price tag, this is one of the last chances for both sides. To deliver a decisive blow to your opponent.
And despite Walz and Vance’s differences, politically speaking, both claim to be common people who better represent Midwestern values and seek support from rural voters who are still undecided. It shines a spotlight on its working-class roots.
“The clash of their very different personalities makes the debate very interesting,” said Robert Rowland, a former national champion college debater and professor of communications at the University of Kansas. “I think the political conflict at the heart of this debate is about which campaign actually represents the working people of this country.”
Known as a policy geek, Vance has jumped straight into his role as an attack dog for 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, with his culture war tirade energizing the team’s MAGA-fueled base, especially when it comes to illegal immigration. I jumped into it.
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But the sharp elbow of the 2024 contest has left its mark on the Ohio State Senators. His poll numbers have plummeted since he was named vice presidential candidate.
An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released this month found that about half of registered voters have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Vance, compared to about 10 for Walz. It was found that 3 people had a negative view of the situation.
He has recently come under fire from liberal critics for promoting baseless claims that Haitian immigrants are eating pets in the state and for past comments criticizing childless Americans.
As Walz ascends to the national stage, he has sought to position himself as an outspoken messenger for Vice President Kamala Harris, but his energetic and quick-witted style has led the Republican Party to call him a “weirdo” in the weeks before he was nominated. ”, which attracted the attention of voters. ticket.
But the Minnesota governor is not without weaknesses that Mr. Vance could exploit to show that the Democratic ticket is too liberal. That’s because Walz boasts a progressive track record since taking office in St. Paul in January 2019. He has made misleading statements, including embellishing some of his past military service records and criticism from conservatives for his response to the riots that followed the death of George Floyd at the hands of police in Minneapolis in 2020.
With early voting underway, it’s unlikely we’ll see another presidential debate, but here’s what to watch ahead of Tuesday’s showdown.
Use of hot microphone is permitted
How Walz and Vance’s exchanges (handshakes, eye rolls, crosstalk bickering) will play out will depend in part on the rules of the debate, and the big difference from the Harris-Trump showdown is that CBS The news probably allows hot mics.
The Harris campaign had called for a rule change during the CNN debate between President Joe Biden and President Trump in June that would have required the candidates to turn on their microphones even when they were not speaking.
Many political commentators believed the reason Harris wanted this during the September presidential debate hosted by ABC News was to seize Trump in a high-profile moment. Harris’ team eventually agreed to mute the candidate’s microphone when he wasn’t speaking.
Under these circumstances, CBS News reserves the right to mute either candidate’s microphone, otherwise every word between the two will be heard by viewers.
Haitian immigration and the immigrant struggle
Vance’s toughest question from hosts CBS’ Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan: Are you willing to spread unsubstantiated rumors that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are eating family pets? It may come from this.
The small city has garnered national attention in recent weeks and faced threats, but Republican senators have so far argued that Haitians are responsible for the rise in tuberculosis and HIV in the area. He had no qualms about making it public. He says his aim is to bring voters’ concerns about immigration to the forefront, even in the face of threatening phone calls, bomb threats and racist abuse from members of Congress in the region. .
“Kamala Harris calls people racists who complain about open borders,” Vance said in a Sept. 23 post on the X show.
“You’re not a bad person for trying to stop the flow of massive illegal immigration and deadly fentanyl,” he added. “Americans who want secure borders have nothing to be ashamed of, but Kamala Harris certainly has.”
Waltz and his military record
One area where Walz may be vulnerable to attack is questions about his 24 years of service in the National Guard.
In 2018, Walz called for stricter gun laws after a mass shooting in Florida, claiming that the weapon used in the incident was similar to a weapon he had “carried in war.” He expressed his support.
But the Democratic governor has never been deployed to combat and dodged questions about this misleading claim in his first sit-down interview since being named vice president on CNN.
The Harris campaign later told USA TODAY that Walz made a “gaffe” in 2018 before defending how he “handled weapons of war” during his time in the Guard.
Mr. Vance, a Marine Corps and Iraq War veteran, has accused Mr. Walz of strategically retiring to run for Congress before his unit was called up in 2005, avoiding deployment.
Walz’s unit received alert orders to deploy to Iraq in July 2005, about two months after he left the military. However, past press releases indicate that he was aware that his battalion might be deployed to Iraq as early as March 2005.
Instead of responding, Walz thanked Vance for his work on the campaign, but you can tell by how he responds in debates when pressed on the topic. Probably.
Two versions of America’s Everyman
Call this the “public debate,” but much of the 2024 campaign is about gender disparity and the opposing views on both sides about the role men play in American society, as embodied by their respective vice presidential candidates. has been done.
Vance, in particular, has been at the center of this debate largely due to comments he made describing women without biological children as “childless cat ladies” who have “no direct stake” in the United States.
Polls show young women are far more liberal than they have been in years past, and Harris said the 2024 election will focus on abortion access after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. It is often said that this is a referendum on the loss of the government. In 2022.
Her campaign isn’t subtle about it. Actor Sam Elliott is featured in an ad encouraging men to “man up and vote for women,” and a town hall hosted by Oprah Winfrey is live-streamed reminiscent of her popular talk show. Hall and made her an icon among female viewers. .
Walz similarly positions himself as a caring “coach” or protective “plaid dad” who is a foil to those who deny women’s reproductive rights, and has been admired by Harris supporters. are.
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign has been aggressively courting young male voters since the Republican convention.
The former president has taken part in a male-dominated fight, including a UFC fight with singer Kid Rock and a podcast hosted by celebrities such as influencer Logan Paul, comedian Theo Vung, and online streamer Adin Roth. He often appears at events.
A poll released last week by Democratic pollster Blueprint found that 55% of men think the Democratic Party is moving “too far to the left.”
“What really seems to be driving them away from Democrats is the economic issue,” said pollster Evan Ross Smith, who conducted the survey. “Men seem to be moving to the right on tax cuts and all kinds of other economic issues, and they seem to think that Democrats can’t do this anymore.”
This is also reflected in how men and women view Harris and Trump’s running mate, the survey found.
According to the survey results, of about 1,200 men, Vance’s net favorability rating was evenly matched, while Waltz’s favorability rating was -4%. Among the approximately 580 female respondents, Vance’s online favorability rating was -15%, while Waltz’s online favorability rating was +17%.
Andrew T. Walker, professor of Christian ethics and public theology at Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, said Mr. Vance has a unique ability to defend traditional family and gender roles in a non-offensive manner, while also pushing back against the rhetoric surrounding him. He said he would be expected to do so. He said some men are outraged by “toxic masculinity.”
“Some men feel like they’re being told they’re society’s problem,” Walker says. “And (Vance) is trying to take advantage of a silent male majority that feels guilty of all these social crimes and social crimes, with elite international liberalism and progressivism as the scapegoat. There is.”
Connection between ‘hillbilly’ career, Harris’ record, and financial concerns
Mr. Vance’s main goal will be to swing the Democratic ticket to the left on a number of issues, including inflation and illegal immigration.
Part of that will involve criticizing Harris for changing positions on important issues while convincing voters, especially poor and working-class voters, that things were better four years ago when Trump was in power. This will likely include anchoring the current vice president in the Biden administration’s track record. White House.
Rather than launch an attack from the beginning, debate expert Roland said the senator’s own life story, detailed in Vance’s best-selling book Hillbilly Elegy, provides a more effective and more effective initial interaction. He said it could offer a softer approach.
“Mr. Vance was chosen primarily because of his biography and his story of overcoming poverty and family dysfunction through hard work,” he said.
Vance, like Harris, is expected to criticize Walz for posing as a moderate while leading the nation’s most liberal state. His mission is to do so while avoiding his own gaffes.
“Mr. Vance needs to make sure he doesn’t come off as a weirdo and that people don’t get the impression that, ‘Hey, he’s stuck in 1950’ on social issues,” said Republican consultant Liz Mair. ” he said.
Clarifies Harris’ goals while warning of Trump’s return
Walz is largely expected to frame the 2024 election as a last chance to prevent President Trump from returning to the White House, as most Democrats have done this year.
The governor has repeatedly linked the Republican candidate on social media to the Project 2025 plan created by the Heritage Foundation in collaboration with more than 100 other conservative groups.
But what Walz is most expected to do Tuesday is help flesh out Harris’ policies for voters who aren’t yet sure about her goals or specific policy prescriptions. .
Adrian Shropshire, executive director of Black PAC and Democratic strategist, said Mr. Walz may have a tougher task than Mr. Vance in this regard.
“He needs to play to a wider audience and voters because they are trying to form a new coalition government,” she said.
During his campaign, Mr. Walz combined powerful attacks on Mr. Trump and successfully used humor as a strategy to portray himself as a caring, common man.
Rowland said the Minnesota Democratic Party outlined how Harris cared about ordinary people, painting Trump as someone who “didn’t care about anyone but herself,” while also pointing out that her policies actually He said he expected them to explain how it would work.
“Given his affable personality, I think the risk of Mr. Walz saying something truly awful that would change public opinion about him is low,” Rowland said.
“But one of the reasons the debate is interesting is its unpredictability,” he added. “Both candidates could say something terrible that could ultimately change the race.”