In September 2019, Houthi drone attacks on Saudi oil processing facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais sent shockwaves across the Middle East. Initial reports said the Iranian-backed Houthis launched 10 drones and missiles, but the attack caused significant damage to Saudi oil infrastructure, caused massive fires and destroyed both facilities. It is indicated that they were forced to close for several days.
Image shows an overview of a pre-strike at Saudi Aramco’s Khurais oil field in Buqaiq, Saudi Arabia. (U.S. Government/Digital Globe via AP) Image shows an overview of a preliminary strike at Saudi Aramco’s Khurais oil field in Buqaiq, Saudi Arabia. (U.S. Government/Digital Globe, via AP)
However, an independent UN report found that Houthi forces were not responsible for the attack, contradicting previous claims and strengthening US accusations of Iranian involvement.
Fast forward to today, and although Iran has not explicitly threatened oil facilities based in the Gulf, “Israel supporters” in the region could be targeted if Iranian interests are at risk. He warns.
No formal threat yet
Attacks on Gulf-based oil facilities are a political tool that Iran could use against the United States if the situation escalates into full-scale war.
Saudi commentator Ali Shihabi said “the Iranians are dropping hints” from unofficial sources about possible Iranian attacks on these facilities.
Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have remained neutral in recent military tensions between Iran and Israel, but a major attack on Iranian oil infrastructure could spark a regional conflict.
Such a scenario could prompt the Iranian-backed Houthis to target oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and possibly the UAE. The 2019 attacks disrupted Saudi Arabia’s 5 million barrels per day of oil production and highlighted the potential impact of escalating hostilities. The UAE is known as an important economic partner for Iran, but an all-out war could create new realities on the ground.
After the 2019 attack, there was widespread speculation that Saudi Arabia would make a major shift in its policy toward Iran.
Ensuring neutrality
On October 3, 2024, the Gulf Arab states sought to reaffirm their neutrality at the Asian Nations Conference hosted by Qatar. However, the situation remains unstable. Depending on the extent of Israel’s retaliation, military tensions could escalate and Gulf states be forced to take sides in the conflict.
According to Axios, US-based media reports indicate that Iranian oil facilities are among the main targets Israel is considering for potential attacks.
A bird’s eye view of the Kharg oil terminal, an important hub for Iran’s oil exports. (Photo via Tehran Times)
The Kharg oil terminal is one of the first possible targets. The terminal is located about 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) off Iran’s northwest coast and handles 90% of the country’s global crude oil exports.
In addition to oil facilities, Israel is considering targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, including Bushehr, along the Persian Gulf.
A map highlighting Iran’s nuclear facilities. It shows major facilities involved in the country’s nuclear program, such as enrichment plants and research centers. (Image courtesy of Tugce Atmaca/Türkiye Today)
Patrick Winter, an analyst at the Guardian, said that while Gulf states may benefit from Israel’s military pressure on Iran, the prospect of all-out war has serious implications that these countries consider dangerous. did.
One Arab diplomat highlighted one possible outcome. If Israel were to achieve a decisive victory over Iran, “it would leave a harsh lesson in the Middle East that justice can be achieved through total war.”