In its latest warning, the National Hurricane Center said Ernesto was a tropical storm that formed in the Caribbean Sea early Tuesday morning Eastern time.
This tropical storm had sustained wind speeds of up to 40 mph. See our coverage here.
All times on the map are Eastern Time. From The New York Times
Ernesto is the fifth named storm to form in the Atlantic in 2024.
What does a storm look like from above?
Satellite imagery helps determine the strength, size, and organization of a storm. The stronger the storm, the more likely it is to form an eye in the center. If the eye appears symmetrical, it often means the storm isn’t encountering anything that could weaken it.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted in late May that this year would be above average, with 17 to 25 named storms.
This season follows a very active year with 20 named storms recorded, including an earlier storm that was later given the official name “No Name.” It is the eighth consecutive year with more than 14 named storms. Only one hurricane, Idalia, made landfall in the United States.
Last season’s El Niño weather pattern would normally have suppressed hurricanes and reduced the number of storms this season, but in 2023, warmer waters in the Atlantic Ocean slowed El Niño’s usual effect of blocking storms.
The warm ocean temperatures that drove last year’s season have gotten even warmer early this season, making forecasters more confident that there will be more storms this year. Warmer seas could also cause storms to intensify more quickly than usual.
To make matters worse, last year’s El Niño weather phenomenon is also weakening, likely creating an even more favorable environment for storms to form and intensify.
Hurricanes need calm conditions to develop, and a strong El Niño in the Atlantic increases wind shear — the change in wind speed and direction with height — which inhibits the ability of storms to merge. The absence of an El Niño this year increases the chances that clouds will tower high enough to sustain powerful cyclones.
Sources and Notes
Tracking Map Tracking data is provided by the National Hurricane Center. The map shows at least a 5 percent probability. Forecasts are up to 5 days out, up to 3 hours before the storm is reported to reach its latest location. Wind speed probability data is not available north of 60.25 degrees north latitude.
Wind Arrival Table Arrival times are generated by New York Times analysis of National Hurricane Center data. Geographic locations are from the U.S. Census Bureau and Natural Earth data. Time zones are from Google. Table shows projected arrival times for specific cities that may be reached by sustained damaging winds of 58 mph or greater. If damaging winds reach a specific location, there is less than a 10 percent chance that they will arrive before the “earliest reasonable” time and a 50 percent chance that they will arrive before the “most likely” time.
Radar Maps Radar imagery is provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration through Iowa State University. These mosaics are produced by combining the individual radar stations that make up the NEXRAD network.
Storm Surge Map Storm surge data is provided by the National Hurricane Center. Forecasts only cover the U.S. Gulf Coast, Atlantic Coast, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Actual areas that may be flooded may differ from those shown on this map. This map takes into account tides, but does not account for flooding caused by waves or rainfall. This map also includes intertidal areas that are regularly flooded during normal high tides.
Satellite map imagery provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Precipitation Maps Multi-day forecast or observed precipitation totals data is provided by the National Weather Service. Single-day forecasts are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.