Tampa Bay, the nation’s most vulnerable metropolitan area to storm surge, could experience the worst flooding in a century if more dire predictions about Hurricane Milton’s path hold true.
Michael Rowley, a hurricane expert with WPLG Local 10 in Miami, said the Tampa Bay area is expected to be inundated with 8 to 12 feet of seawater, which is “more than anything explicitly announced by the Tampa Bay National Hurricane Center. “This is the best storm surge prediction.” .
Evacuations have already begun in the Tampa metropolitan area, home to about 3.5 million people, as the storm approaches, primarily due to the threat of storm surge. “Storm surge has historically been the single most deadly hazard of hurricanes, responsible for more than half of hurricane-related deaths over the past 50 years, and a primary reason for evacuation advisories issued before hurricanes. ” said Rowley.
More information: Hurricane Milton Tracker: Follow the predicted path of the storm expected to hit Florida
The most vulnerable city in the country
According to a 2015 report by risk modeling firm Karen Clark & Company, the Tampa St. Martin’s newspaper states: The St. Petersburg metropolitan area was the most vulnerable in the country to the threat of storm surge.
As noted by meteorologist Jeff Masters on the Yale Climate Connections blog, a Category 4 storm hitting just north of Tampa Bay could cause $230 billion in damage from storm surge alone. The book says:
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Why is Tampa so vulnerable to storm surge?
There are several reasons why Tampa is the most vulnerable city to storm surge in the United States, according to a 2015 report.
First, the continental shelf off the west coast of Florida is relatively wide. Masters said the shallow continental shelf waters off Tampa Bay (less than 300 feet deep up to 90 miles offshore) allow large storm surges to occur. This highlights the sea level rise caused by major hurricanes.
Second, Tampa Bay forms a large funnel, especially for hurricanes with maximum wind radius near the mouth of the bay, the report said.
More information: Powerful Hurricane Milton reaches Category 5 status on path to Florida: Live updates
“If a severe storm were to occur on the right trajectory, it would create a huge accumulation of water that would become trapped in the Gulf and flood large areas of Tampa and St. Petersburg. Fifty percent of the population lives less than 10 feet above ground level. I’m here.
The 1921 Hurricane remains the standard.
Tampa hasn’t been hit by a major hurricane since 1921. The hurricane barely qualified as a Category 3 hurricane, the report said.
According to Yale Climate Connections, the Tampa Bay Hurricane on October 25, 1921 was the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay area. “This low-grade Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph at landfall produced storm surges 10 to 11.5 feet high and caused significant damage ($180 million in 2024).”
In 2004, Hurricane Charlie was headed toward Tampa but unexpectedly veered south just before landfall, Karen Clark reports.
prediction error
Lowry said Milton’s path is critical to where the worst of the storm surge will make landfall. As of Monday afternoon, much of Florida’s west coast was in the “zone of uncertainty” at the center of the hurricane, including the entire Tampa Bay metropolitan area.
However, the current predicted trajectory is not completely carved out.
Unfortunately, the average forecast error is 20 to 40 miles even 12 to 24 hours before landfall. Florida’s diagonal peninsula magnifies these typical errors, making it impossible to know exactly where the worst storm surge will hit, Lowry said.