Last weekend, the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) General Commercial Gambling Regulatory Authority (GCGRA) approved a lottery license to an Abu Dhabi-based company, sparking speculation that the move could pave the way for casino gambling in the country.
GCGRA was formed last September and is chaired by former MGM Resorts International CEO Jim Mullen, and has granted a lottery license to The Game LLC, a subsidiary of privately held Momentum, which will offer lottery games under the UAE Lottery brand.
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Some industry analysts consider the approval positive news for Wynn Resorts and its Wynn Al Marjan Island integrated resort in Ras Al Khaimah, which is currently under construction. John Decree, an analyst at CBRE Institutional Research, noted that the Abu Dhabi Lottery’s approval is an important indicator of changing public sentiment and bringing legitimacy and transparency to the UAE’s gambling regulatory process. Decree added that the lottery’s approval may ease skepticism within the investment community about the potential legalization of commercial gambling in the UAE.
It’s been more than two years since Las Vegas-based Wynn announced plans for a casino hotel in the UAE. Wynn has a minority stake in the project, but analysts see it as a potential long-term driver of revenue and income for the operator. Contrary to industry expectations, casino gambling has not yet been approved in the UAE, so Wynn’s shares have not yet reflected this opportunity. However, shares closed up 1.09% today.
Although UAE regulators have not formally approved casino gambling, construction is progressing on Wynn Al Marjan Island, which is expected to open in early 2027, with the hotel tower completed by late 2025. Despite the lack of official approval, the UAE is widely seen as one of the best opportunities for international expansion for the gambling industry.
Decree noted that GCGRA is staffed with experienced gaming industry veterans who have rapidly developed pioneering regulations for the gaming industry, highlighting the UAE’s potential to be the next frontier for the industry.
There are two key factors that make this plan attractive to Wynn and its investors. First, the project’s progress could give Wynn a monopoly on casino gaming in the UAE for several years, assuming GCGRA approves casino regulations soon. Second, Wynn has previously told investors that Wynn Al Marjan Island could generate annual EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of up to $600 million once fully operational.
Decrée suggested that if casino gaming were permitted in the UAE, the license renewal process could be “administrative in nature” similar to Nevada’s model, rather than the concession model seen in Macau and Singapore. This could lead public investors to assign higher valuation multiples to commercial gaming operations in the UAE compared to jurisdictions where renewal processes are less predictable. This predictability would be attractive to operators like Wynn, because Nevada’s license renewal process requires minimal effort, unlike Macau’s, which requires periodic renewals with significant concessions required by the government.