According to St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporter Derrick Gould, the Cardinals are considering a trade for outfielder Dylan Carlson and right-hander Giovanni Gallegos. The team is also expected to acquire Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham, but the trade would free up a roster spot for Tommy Edman. Gallegos was designated for assignment yesterday and is no longer on the roster. Los Angeles Times reporter Jack Harris reports that the Dodgers are interested in Gallegos, while MLB.com reporter John Denton reports via X-News that the Guardians, Angels and Nationals are interested in Carlson, but the Guardians just acquired Lane Thomas from the Nationals, so their interest in Carlson is likely waning.
The 25-year-old Karlsson has seen less playing time this year as players like Michael Siani, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaa and Alec Burleson have outplayed him on the ground. Things will only get tougher once Pham officially reports to the team. As mentioned above, the team needs to free up a couple of roster spots, so a trade for Karlsson will likely happen between now and tomorrow’s deadline.
“For now, he’s still one of our outfielders, but obviously we’re going to have a roster crunch at some point,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said about Carlson today, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News Democrat on X. “So we’ll see what happens over the next 24 hours, but he’s still a part of our organization for now and we’ll see how it goes.”
For the Cardinals, letting Carlson go now would certainly be a bargain. Until recently, he was the team’s first-round draft pick and one of the team’s top prospects. He also looked set to establish himself as a solid regular in the major leagues when he first joined the team. In 2021, he played in 149 games, hit 18 home runs and recorded a 9.2% walk rate. His outfield defensive performance was also rated close to the league average, and Fangraphs calculated that he was worth 2.4 wins this year.
That was still his age-22 season, so it seemed reasonable to expect better performance going forward, but the opposite happened. In 2022, Carlson was on the disabled list twice, first with a tight left hamstring and then a sprained left thumb. He appeared in 128 games but his production dipped a bit, finishing the year with a .236/.316/.380 batting average and a wRC+ of 99.
He played in just 76 games last year after being on the disabled list multiple times due to a left ankle injury that ultimately required surgery, and his production again dipped this year, batting .219/.318/.333 with a wRC+ of 84, but that may have had something to do with his health.
Entering 2024, it seemed like Karlsson had a chance to bounce back. Both Edman and Nootbaal were scheduled to start the season on the disabled list, which meant Karlsson was expected to get plenty of playing time. Unfortunately, at the end of spring training, Karlsson and Jordan Walker collided while trying to catch a ball in the outfield. Karlsson was diagnosed with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder, and he also had to start the season on the disabled list.
He returned by early May, but as mentioned above, he hasn’t seen much playing time this year, slashing .198/.275/.240 in 2024 and not doing much to earn a long playing time.
Perhaps some clubs will look at Karlsson as a potential change of pace. He has been on a downward trend for the last three years, mostly due to injuries. With some good health and some regular playing time somewhere, he could be back to where he was a few years ago. He is making a modest $2.35 million this year and has two more years on his contract. He will get a raise through arbitration, but given his recent performance and injury absences, he probably won’t get much of a raise. Karlsson has options and doesn’t necessarily need to be traded, but the Cardinals might prefer to trade him for something now since he may not be in their future plans.
The Nationals have already let go several veteran outfielders this year — Eddie Rosario and Victor Robles were waived and Jesse Winker was traded to the Mets — and, as mentioned above, Thomas just got dealt to the Guardians. Perhaps they could slot Carlson next to James Wood and Jacob Young.
The Angels would be in a similar situation, as they have tradeable players like Taylor Ward and Kevin Pillar who are offering outfield time, and if they were to make a deal for either of those players, they could acquire Karlsson on the cheap and have him play for the rest of this year or even next.
Gallegos is also a move to sell cheap, but the Cardinals don’t have many options. He’s a soon-to-be free agent and is already off the roster and in DFA limbo. He was one of the league’s best relief pitchers until recently, pitching 228 1/3 innings with a 2.84 ERA from 2019-2022. During that span, he struck out 32% of the batters he faced and walked just 6.6% of them while recording 33 saves and 56 holds.
But his ERA jumped to 4.42 last year and his strikeout rate dropped to 25.8%. As of 2024, his strikeout rate has dropped to 22.3% and his ERA has risen to 6.53. This got him off the roster, but the Dodgers have built a solid reputation for getting good results out of their pitchers and are probably looking at ways to get Gallegos back on track. His salary this year is $5.5 million, with about $1.8 million still due. The Dodgers are set to be third-time payers of the competitive balance tax, and because they are well above the top tier, they would face a 110% tax rate on anything they add to their salary at this point.