Sudan’s government last week criticised the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for proposing to deliver aid to conflict zones in the country without its approval.
Abu Dhabi has asked the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to authorise the shipment of aid across the border to alleviate the dire humanitarian situation in Sudan, but the move has inflamed tensions between the two countries, with Sudan accusing the UAE of crossing the border.
Sudan has repeatedly accused the UAE of escalating the ongoing conflict by providing arms to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and the Sudanese government claims to have shared compelling evidence of this support with the UN Security Council.
The Sudanese government claimed in June that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was escalating the conflict through its supply of weapons to RSF militias accused of war crimes in western Darfur. The UAE has denied all accusations as “absurd” and “baseless”.
However, the UN Security Council recently obtained a 41-page document containing images of UAE passports recovered from the Sudanese city of Omdurman, now under the control of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), suggesting that the UAE had deployed ground troops, despite initial denials.
Sudanese military commander and de facto leader Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed held a telephone conversation on July 15, mediated by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The call came after a bilateral currency swap agreement worth $817 million was signed between the UAE Central Bank and the National Bank of Ethiopia, marking the first direct communication between the two leaders since Sudan’s assertion in June.
A Sudanese source close to the SAF told The New Arab that the meeting could increase the chances of talks in Addis Ababa, but that the chances of a meeting had decreased following the UAE’s request for assistance.
An assassination attempt on Burhan during a military graduation ceremony in Jubaiit, eastern Sudan, in late July dampened hopes that the conflict would be resolved at the US-sponsored Geneva talks scheduled to take place in mid-August and involving Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE.
Sudan’s civil war erupted following a December 2018 revolution that ousted longtime autocrat President Omar al-Bashir and forged a power-sharing deal between the military and the Forces for Freedom and Change, a coalition of civilian parties, trade unions, grassroots movements and armed groups.
But in October 2021, army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan dissolved this arrangement, concentrating power in the hands of RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.
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In the months before the conflict began, Burhan and Hemedti had been at odds over integrating the RSF into the formal military. By early April 2023, Sudanese army troops were on the streets of Khartoum and RSF fighters were scattered across Sudan.
On April 15, Khartoum was hit by a series of explosions and heavy gunfire. SAF and RSF leaders accused each other of starting the hostilities. Burhan formed a new government with his Islamist allies, former rebels.
The conflict has sparked the world’s largest displacement crisis, forcing more than 10 million people to seek safety inside and outside Sudan’s borders, leaving around 25 million people – almost half the population – in need of urgent humanitarian assistance.
How the UAE added fuel to the fire
“Sudan is key to the UAE’s Africa and Middle East strategy as it seeks to gain political and economic dominance in the Gulf, stifling democratic aspirations in the process,” Husam Mahjoub, a researcher and political analyst, told The New Arab newspaper.
According to Majjoub, the UAE’s strategy is based on four pillars: fighting any democratization process in the region, countering Iranian and Islamist influence, strengthening its economic power and expanding its political influence in the region.
“At the beginning of the conflict, a logistical operation was planned to deliver weapons to the RSF through networks in Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan and Uganda, as well as Haftar and Wagner’s militias. These supplies were reportedly disguised as humanitarian aid,” he added.
“In addition, RSF’s business, financial, logistical and public relations operations are carried out in the UAE. Wounded RSF soldiers are also flown to Abu Dhabi for treatment.”
Mahjoub also claims that RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo has reportedly visited several African countries using aircraft owned by UAE royals and presidential advisers.
More than two million people have fled the war in Sudan for neighboring countries. [Getty]
The UAE’s relationship with the RSF predates the current conflict, according to Sudanese political analyst Abzar Elameen, who noted that the UAE has long supported Hemedti, who has sent RSF fighters to Yemen and supported General Khalifa Haftar in Libya.
“Hemedti’s rise to power in Sudan after Bashir was largely due to Abu Dhabi’s backing, and the ties extend to economic ventures as well, with Hemedti controlling the Jebel Amer gold mines in Darfur, funneling gold into the UAE and global markets,” he told The New Arab.
In 2019, four years before the conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) began, Hemedti procured 1,000 vehicles from the UAE that could be converted to “technical” vehicles equipped with machine guns. The purchase was made through Tradiv General Trading, a UAE-based company owned by the Dagalo family.
Sudanese officials, including Lt. Gen. Yasir el-Atta, deputy commander of the Sudanese armed forces, claim the UAE is providing more than ground transportation to the RSF: Reports from intelligence and diplomatic channels say the UAE is sending aircraft to support the RSF, also known as the Janjaweed.
Cautious optimism
But Sudanese political factions and several armed groups have expressed cautious optimism following the phone call between Burhan and bin Zayed, including Revolutionary Democratic Force leader Yasir Alman, who is close to the SAF leadership, and Umma Party leader Mubarak Al Fadil.
Political analyst Mahir Abguk sees this as a productive, peace-building step because the military’s shift in stance could alienate the Muslim Brotherhood and other supporters of the war, who are seeking to prolong the conflict and thwart the civilian democratic project.
“Even if one faction wins, they will rule with guns,” he told The New Arab newspaper. “The first step towards peace is to end hostilities, after which a political system and a constitution must be established.”
But Elameen doesn’t think the UAE should be trusted.
“This is no secret,” he explains. “The accusations about ties between the UAE and the RSF are true. There is growing evidence that there is direct financial, logistical and military support that is making it difficult for the Sudanese army to end this war.”
Elameen claims that by supporting Hemedti and other rebels, the UAE is trying to split Sudan into four separate countries, pitting them against each other and making it easier to exploit their resources.
Abgouq disagrees, arguing that the UAE’s current involvement in the Sudanese conflict could be part of a broader regional and international effort to end the war.
“The alliance between Saudi Arabian forces and Islamists may have helped the military in the early stages of the conflict, but the groups supporting the war are diverse and complex, and relations are already starting to unravel, and the UAE’s involvement could certainly lead to peace,” he told The New Arab.
Elameen expressed further skepticism about Burhan’s recent interactions with Bin Zayed.
“If I were Burhan, I would categorically reject any involvement of the UAE in this crisis,” he said. “It is because of their role that we are in this deplorable situation in the first place.”
Mahjoub agrees that any deal struck with the Gulf states would likely impose their vision of resolving the conflict, ensuring the survival of the RSF and preventing the establishment of a democratic, civilian state.
“It may lead to a temporary truce, but I think it will lead to a much worse explosion in the future.”
This article is published in collaboration with Egab.