The Astros have been one of the most aggressive teams in the starting pitching business, having already signed Jameson Taillon, Erick Fedde and Zach Eflin (before he was traded to Baltimore), and reports yesterday said Houston is also in the running to sign the top two rental pitchers on the market.
Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted last night that the Astros and Tigers have had talks about right-hander Jack Flaherty. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote that Houston is interested in both Flaherty and Toronto left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Both Flaherty and Kikuchi are expected to be traded before next Tuesday’s deadline. The left-hander told reporters after last night’s start (which will almost certainly be his final time in a Blue Jays uniform) that Toronto GM Ross Atkins has already told him he’s likely going to be traded (link to Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). The Tigers haven’t spoken too strongly about Flaherty, but they’re three games below .500 and 6.5 games out of the final wild-card spot in the American League.
Flaherty is having the better season of the two. The 28-year-old has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, posting a 2.95 ERA in 18 starts. He’s averaging six innings per game and has one of the highest rates of batters he’s missed. Flaherty is striking out 32% of the batters he faces, a career-best mark, and his walk rate is below 5% for the first time in his career. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, only Garrett Crochette has a bigger gap between his strikeout rate and his walk rate. Flaherty ranks fifth among this group in strikeout rate, 14th in ERA and seventh in strikeout-and-won rate (14.1%).
Kikuchi also has positive strikeouts and walks, but he hasn’t missed as many batters as Flaherty. Kikuchi ranks 24th in strikeout rate and 18th in strikeout percentage at 26.2%. He’s pitched 115 2/3 innings in 22 starts. His 4.75 ERA isn’t all that impressive, but that number is inflated by a very high .340 batting average and a 70.6% rate of bases left on reserves. Kikuchi’s BABIP and bases left on base were close to league average last season. He had a 3.86 ERA in 32 starts.
Astros general manager Dana Brown spoke to reporters on Friday afternoon about the team’s rotation ambitions (link provided by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Brown said the team would be happy with a “third or fourth starter” in the rotation to slot in behind Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and maybe a healthy Justin Verlander. (Ronel Blanco is also having a great season, but is in uncharted territory in terms of MLB volume.) Brown noted the lack of quality pitchers this summer and said it’s “really tough” to acquire players for the top two spots in the rotation.
It’s debatable whether Flaherty qualifies as a No. 1 or No. 2 starter. He certainly pitched at that level this year, but his 4.99 ERA and middling strikeout and walk numbers were just a season ago. Kikuchi more likely falls into the No. 3 or No. 4 starter category Brown mentioned, because his home run issues have kept him from consistently reaching the top level of a starter.
That would make Kikuchi a likely target, but the Astros seem to be working on multiple fronts. Houston has one of the weakest farm systems in the major leagues, but the limited time frame for Flaherty and Kikuchi would limit any trade fees to some extent. Brown noted that while it would be ideal to acquire a pitcher they could control beyond this season, they are not opposed to acquiring rental players. He added that there is no player in the minor league pipeline that they absolutely must have, but suggested they would like to avoid trading directly from the major league roster.
Outfielder Jacob Melton is the only Houston player named to Baseball America’s latest Top 100 Prospects. The Tigers would have a legitimate shot at him in a trade for Flaherty. Detroit could make a qualifying offer if they don’t trade Flaherty this summer. Assuming he signs for more than $50 million next winter, the Tigers would get a compensatory pick after the first round in 2025. They’ll need to value the trade package more than the pick (plus the slim chance they could make the playoffs this year). Jake Bross, currently out of the major league starting rotation, is the No. 2 player in BA’s latest Astros system update. Following him are 2023 first-round pick Bryce Matthews and outfielder Joey Loperfido, another current major leaguer.
Flaherty is making $14 million this season and Kikuchi is making $10 million in the final season of his three-year contract. The former is due about $4.82 million at the end of the season and the latter is due about $3.44 million. Both salaries the Astros receive will count against the luxury tax ledger, which is already at a franchise-high $256 million, according to RosterResource.
The Astros are taxed at a 32% rate on any salary they absorb if the total salary is between $257 million and $277 million. Brown broadly hinted that the team is open to adding to the payroll, saying owner Jim Crane “understands how important it is for us to acquire starting pitchers … so I don’t think the total salary is going to hold us back.”