Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump among Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada, two key states that will decide the 2024 election. , is losing support among young Latino men, two exclusive news reveals. USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll.
More than half (57%) of Arizona’s Latino voters say they will vote for Harris or intend to lean toward Harris, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely Hispanic voters in Arizona. 38% said they were leaning toward Trump. Harris also leads Trump among Latino voters in Nevada, 56% to 40%, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely Hispanic voters.
Both polls were conducted in English and Spanish from September 27 to October 2, and had a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points in each state.
It will be a close race between Harris and Trump, with contests in a handful of key states, including Nevada and Arizona. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll released last month had Mr. Trump leading Ms. Harris by 6 percentage points, but like most polls, it was within the margin of error.
One in four voters in Arizona is Latino, and one in five in Nevada is Latino.
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There remains a gender gap between the two candidates’ supporters, with Trump receiving more support from young Latino men under 50 and Harris more support from women.
In Arizona, 51% of Latino men ages 18 to 34 said they supported Trump, and 39% of Latino men ages 18 to 34 said they supported Harris. Among Arizona Latino men between the ages of 35 and 49, 57% say they support Trump, compared to 37% who support Harris.
The breakdown was similar in Nevada, with 53% of Latino men ages 18 to 34 supporting Trump and 40% supporting Harris. These numbers are similar among Latino men between the ages of 35 and 49: 53% for Trump and 39% for Harris.
“He’s America first,” said Yodani Gonzalez, 34, a Las Vegas resident who likes President Trump. “For now, I feel like everything should stay in the United States. I don’t agree with any dollars leaving this country. If it leaves this country, what does it do to us? Is there any profit?”
Gonzalez, who immigrated from Cuba and has lived in Las Vegas since the age of 7, is a registered Democrat and voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 out of “family loyalty.”
“I’m not going to do that this time, because that’s just lying to myself,” he said.
David Paleologos, director of the Center for Political Research at Suffolk University, said it’s good news that Harris is leading among Latino voters in both states, but that her current margin is unlikely to be enough to win the state. Ta.
“It’s just young people and men, but that offset … is why Harris’ numbers aren’t where they should be (for her to win),” Paleologos said.
Harris’ support among Latino voters in both states is slightly lower than Biden’s in 2020.
According to CNN exit polls at the time, Biden had a 24-point lead over Trump among Latinos in Arizona, 61% to 37%. According to CNN exit polls from the 2020 election, Latino support in Nevada was 61% to 35%, giving Biden a 26-point lead over Trump.
Latina women of all ages prefer Harris to Trump. For example, 62% of Latinos between the ages of 18 and 24 said they supported Harris, compared to 33% who said they supported Trump.
Celeste Garcia, 22, a lifelong resident of Phoenix, said: “I appreciate her hard work and dedication to giving women the right to their own bodies, their full and complete rights, and to make their own decisions.” “I’m working on it,” he said.
This will be Garcia’s first vote, as her top priorities are reproductive rights and gun safety (she loves that Harris owns guns).
“It’s a big responsibility,” she said of voting. “Everyone has the opportunity to vote when they turn 18, but you all have a huge impact. I’m trying. And that’s an important part for me.”
Inflation and immigration are the most important policies
Across both states, Latino voters had two issues on their mind: inflation and immigration.
In Nevada, 37% of Latinos say inflation is their top concern. Immigration was the second biggest concern at 17%. Extreme partisanship across the country is also a major concern among Latino voters, with 12% saying uniting the country is a top priority.
Abortion was the fourth-biggest concern for Latinos in Nevada at 8%.
Inflation was the top priority for Arizona Latino voters at 29%, followed by immigration at 15%. Abortion was the third-biggest concern for Latinos in Arizona at 11%. 10% said uniting the country was their biggest concern.
Harris has made abortion and reproductive rights a cornerstone of her campaign, while Trump has typically focused on immigration.
But polls show that the economy is a top concern for many Latinos, especially young Latino men who support Trump.
Arturo Muñoz, 28, of Phoenix, said his pay increased while in the Army under the Trump administration and praised “everything he did for blue-collar workers.”
Muñoz, a registered independent and a truck driver, said he believes President Trump can help make the economy more affordable, which he said he experienced between 2016 and 2020.
“Now I have to spend an incredible amount of money just to pay my bills, to spend time with my family,” Muñoz said.
Reno resident Alexander Huerta, 26, said the economy is also top of mind for him. Even though Huerta is a government employee making $35 an hour, he said he lives a life consistent with his pay. He is concerned with funds going to wars around the world, rather than keeping them in the United States.
“It seems like no matter what topic you focus on, everything is bad,” he says. “I can’t think of anything good right now.”
But some voters are more concerned about what President Trump’s re-election would mean for the future of the United States.
“Having tried President Trump, that seems like a better option,” said Daniel Gutierrez, 30, of Las Vegas. “Trump was already a mess. He’s thinking about other things to move the country forward.”
Gutierrez, a registered independent, said America’s place on the world stage is his top priority in the election. He believes President Trump has ignored relationships with key allies.
“It cascades to the point where we’re no longer trusted, people don’t trust us to keep our commitments as a nation, and I feel like we’ve suffered a lot that way. ” Gutierrez said.
But more importantly, I believe Harris is trying to become president not just for herself, but for the people.
“She’s focused on keeping us a stable country, rather than just supporting herself and trying to better herself,” he said.