Lionel Messi will play 49% of Inter Miami’s 2024 MLS season, and the entire history of U.S. professional sports suggests that he should therefore not win MLS MVP.
No player in Major League history has ever been named “Most Valuable Player” despite missing nearly half the season. NFL MVPs always play in at least 12 of 16 games. In baseball, players other than pitchers regularly play over 100 games.
In basketball, Bill Walton won the 1978 NBA award despite missing 24 of 82 games and playing only 49% of the minutes, similar to Messi, but the NBA recently announced that Major League Soccer codified a rule that would actually disqualify Messi if he imitated it. : To earn the MVP award, a player must appear in at least 65 games.
Still, with two weeks left, Messi is more than just a contender for the MLS award. He should be an absolute favorite.
He’s my favorite because he packed an entire season’s MVP award into 15 starts and two substitute appearances. It’s also because his presence alone completely transformed Inter Miami from a laughing stock, the worst team in MLS to perhaps the best team of all time.
He is literally, and obviously, the league’s “Most Valuable Player” by a wide margin.
Lionel Messi scored twice as Inter Miami won the Supporters’ Shield with a win over Columbus Crew on Wednesday. (Joseph Maiorana Iman Images)
numbers
Statistically, Messi is not only the best player in the league from game to game. He was the most prolific and productive player.
He has 17 goals and 15 assists in 17 games. His 32 goals are second most in MLS, one behind Portland’s Evander (15 goals, 18A), and tied with FC Cincinnati’s Luciano Acosta (13 goals, 19A). That’s more than Columbus Crew forward Cucho Hernandez (17G, 13A) and more than Acosta posted last season, when he won the 2023 MVP.
Dennis Bouanga and Chicho Arango, two other MVP candidates, are right behind them. Acosta and Evander, like most star players, have both started more than 25 games and played more than 2,100 minutes.
Messi, on the other hand, compiled these numbers in 1,424 minutes.
He was injured in March, played away for the Copa America in June, and injured again in July and August. And certainly, his absence is a blow to the MVP candidate. When he’s not on the field, he’s not “valuable” in the traditional sense of the word. That’s why MVP voters typically value raw statistics and body of work over efficiency metrics.
However, Messi is incredibly good on the field and his numbers are still comparable to Cucho, Acosta and Evander. In fact, deducting penalties, Messi surprisingly ranks at the top of the goal creation list (31 goals to Evandel’s 30, Acosta’s 29, Cucho’s 28, Arango’s 27). , Bouanga’s 22 goals).
And what is his number per 90%? Another world. Historical.
His 1.71 non-penalty goals and assists per 90 minutes (npG+A/90), based on the global definition of assists rather than MLS’s more generous definition, is the single-season record for any other player in 2019. Almost half a goal better than that. History of MLS, by FBref.
In fact, in some of the 28 seasons MLS has completed, Messi’s performance would have been more than twice that of the league leader.
Many of his secondary metrics (successful dribbling, progressive passing, shot-generating action) are also elite. His gravity, the defensive attention he commands, the space he creates for his teammates just by being, is unparalleled.
Lionel Messi’s performance per 90 games in MLS this season compared to other MVP candidates.
The only real argument against Messi for MVP is that he doesn’t play defense and Miami won without him.
rebuttal
You can also use different numbers and logic to create a clever case against Messi.
In fact, Inter Miami wins more points per game without Messi (2.13 points) than with him (2.12).
And certainly, one could argue that the reason for that surprising statistic is Messi’s slower work rate. His defensive contributions are essentially non-existent. When they have the ball, it’s like Inter are playing 10-11 and they are struggling. They rank at the bottom of MLS when it comes to xGA (Expected Goals Against), a measure of opponents’ chance creation.
However, the logic soon becomes clear. Statistically, Miami’s defense wasn’t noticeably better or worse with Messi off or on the field. They will readjust to accommodate him because his impact on the other side of the field is undeniable. With Messi on the field, Miami has scored 42 goals in 15.8 MLS games, which would break the league’s single-season record if projected over 34 games.
In May, June, July and August, when Messi was away, they strung together several close 2-1 wins and could easily have drawn or lost. On the other hand, with Messi, they became the best and most dynamic. The goal difference in these 17 games is +20.
The oversimplified view that Inter are just as good without Messi ignores the big picture. They’ll be fine without him because he came to Miami in the first place.
big picture
Before Messi arrived midway through the 2023 season, Inter Miami was at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. The Herons had 18 points from 22 games (5 wins, 3 draws, 14 losses). They were terrifying in every sense of football. They were scoring only one goal per game. Their expected goal difference was the worst in the entire league.
Then Messi appeared.
Fifteen months later, that same Inter Miami team is two wins away from breaking the MLS single-season scoring record.
“We’ve been a losing team for years, and now we’re a winning team,” head coach Tata Martino said recently.
They are a regular team and not just because of Messi. Sergio Busquets also appeared. Next came Jordi Alba and then Luis Suarez. Miami also signed six young players from South America and several lesser-known veterans, helping to improve the club’s standing.
But the majority wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for Messi. Martino probably won’t become a manager. Messi is also the most valuable recruiter in the league. It’s not because he picked up the phone and called midfielder Diego Gomez or defender Tomรกs Avilรฉs, but because his god-like stature led Inter Miami to acquire players that most MLS clubs couldn’t acquire. Because I made it my destination. Or you can afford it.
So what about Messi? Comprehensive and clear.
He has produced more non-penalty goals than anyone in the league.
He turned a dysfunctional cellar dweller into a Supporters’ Shield winner (regular season champion).
In 2024, he became MLS’s most valuable player.