Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s campaigns aren’t having much of an easy time in the final weeks leading up to the presidential election. An “October Surprise” may be just around the corner.
Hillary Clinton, President Trump’s opponent in 2016, talked about how an October surprise (unexpected major news about a candidate) derailed the final stages of the campaign and ultimately affected the election outcome. Know very well what you might give. Her email came less than a month before Election Day, when WikiLeaks began releasing her emails.
She is now warning Harris to expect a surprise of her own in October.
“I expect something to happen in October, as always,” Clinton said in a recent interview with PBS. “…There will be a concerted effort to distort and distort who Kamala Harris is, what she represents and what she has done.”
Clinton said she was particularly concerned about social media disinformation spread by Russia, Iran and China, as well as pro-Trump media organizations that could cover any fabricated stories.
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“We anticipate a full-court press conference in October. The digital broadcast will be packed.”
In an age of 24/7 news, stories that affect presidential candidates can break at any time. However, the October Surprise is not a modern phenomenon. Here’s how they’ve influenced elections in the past.
1840: Allegations of election fraud
Although the term was only coined in 1980, the first October Surprise occurred during the 1840 U.S. presidential election, according to POLITICO.
President Martin Van Buren attempted to stage an October surprise for the Whigs, paying Pennsylvania voters to travel to New York in the state’s 1838 election and committing “the most outrageous” voter fraud. He accused party leaders of “a brutal fraud.”
In mid-October, federal prosecutors led by Mr. Van Buren, a Democrat, announced charges against the Whig politicians. Van Buren had hoped the timing of the indictment would swing the election in his favor.
Unfortunately for Democrats, voters didn’t seem to care. Van Buren lost the election to Whig William Henry Harrison.
1972: Nixon announces Vietnam peace agreement early
During his first presidential campaign, Richard Nixon promised to end the Vietnam War. By the end of his first term, the conflict was still raging. However, that did not stop President Nixon and National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger from prematurely announcing a peace agreement between the United States and Vietnam.
A month before the presidential election, North Vietnamese negotiators agreed to U.S. peace terms. However, talks broke down on October 22nd. Nevertheless, Kissinger attended a press conference scheduled for October 26 and announced that “peace is on the way.”
The false peace declaration gave Mr. Nixon an additional lead in the polls. He ultimately won the election 12 days later with over 60% of the popular vote. After Kissinger’s announcement, the Vietnam War continued for more than two years.
2008: Market crash stumbles for McCain
Not all of October’s surprises are intentional or deceptive. In the 2008 election campaign, Republican John McCain was hurt by the stock market crash.
Americans began to feel the effects of the Great Recession in October 2008. At this time, the stock market was in free fall and America was facing its highest unemployment rate in 14 years.
The financial crisis further destabilized Mr. McCain’s candidacy and his resonance. In an August 2008 interview with POLITICO, McCain could not remember how many homes he owned. A month later, CBS News reported that McCain declared that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong.”
The people did not agree. Democratic candidate Barack Obama seized on McCain’s gaffe and labeled him out of touch with ordinary Americans. Mr. Obama won with about 53% of the vote.
Melissa Cruz is an election reporting fellow who focuses on voter access issues for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at mcruz@gannett.com or @MelissaWrites22 on X (formerly Twitter).