Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin has advocated for a gambling market based on the Middle East’s conflicts, saying, “Rather than making money off bad things happening, we should rather create an environment where speech has consequences without government censorship.” It’s the purpose.”
Posted on October 3, 2024 at 4:58am EST.
Decentralized prediction platform Polymarket allows users to bet on the outcome of real-world events. However, the recent introduction of a Hezbollah-focused betting market has sparked debate about the ethical implications of such markets.
The market also included bets on whether Israeli forces would invade Lebanon and bets on a U.S. military attack in the region. Polymarket has since removed the Hezbollah tag, but the bet on the escalating conflict in the Middle East remains.
“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of crowds to create accurate, unbiased predictions about the events that matter most to society. That ability is especially valuable in gut-wrenching times like today. ” Polymarket said in a note above all Middle East related bets on its website.
“After discussions with people directly affected by the attack, we had dozens of questions, and prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in a way that TV news or Twitter couldn’t.” I realized that there is a sex.”
The platform also noted that it takes no fees from these bets and provides its services at a loss.
“It feels wrong to have a whole Hezbollah gambling section in Polymarket and make war look like a gambling football match,” said the pseudonymous “Legend” host of Modern Market on X. Ta.
Another pseudonymous X user “Kix.eth” shared a rebuttal. Anyone who invests in the S&P 500 is investing in the company that made the missile used by Israel, Kix said. Kix also argued that betting on the outcome of a disaster can be a form of insurance.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin participated in the discussion and said he supports them. [markets] existing.
“The point of Polymarket is that from a trader’s point of view it is a betting site, but from a viewer’s point of view it is a news site.
“There are all kinds of people (including elites) on Twitter and the internet making harmful and inaccurate predictions about the conflict, and there are people who actually have skin in the game that have a 2% or 50% chance of anything. You can go and see if you think % Chance is a valuable feature that helps keep people sane.”
In his view, these markets are a way to produce real consequences through unwarranted fear-mongering and self-gratification, without resorting to government or corporate censorship.
Meanwhile, Zach Lines, who recently misrepresented himself as the person behind the ChainLinkGod He argued that the government would start providing subsidies to the
“If these markets traded with more than $100 million in liquidity, would the results be different? Maybe not, but if there was insider trading going on, they would be subsidizing the war. Isn’t that what we’re putting out?” Lines said.
“I don’t think prediction markets are passive observers; their presence influences outcomes when operating at scale.”