If you’re not yet ready to let go of summer, which officially ends on Sunday, you might be in luck: The U.S. weather outlook for October through December is likely to include above-normal temperatures in 46 of the 50 states, federal forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center said Thursday.
AccuWeather forecasters are also in agreement with the prediction of a scorching hot fall. “This fall will feel like an extended summer for millions of Americans,” said Paul Pastelok, chief long-range forecaster at AccuWeather. “This year, following a scorching hot summer, we’ll see a delayed transition to cooler temperatures for much of the country.”
Areas likely to experience above-average temperatures include eastern New England, southern Florida and much of the Southwest, including the Phoenix area, which is still recovering from a record 113 consecutive days of temperatures above 100 degrees this summer, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
Overall, parts of 46 states are in the “above average” zone, including parts of Alaska and Hawaii. Only Washington, North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin are unlikely to experience above average temperatures this fall, where forecasters say there is an equal chance of above average and below average temperatures.
What about rain and snow?
The Climate Prediction Center expects a wet autumn for the Northeast, Great Lakes and Northwest, but said only that precipitation is likely to be above normal, without specifying whether it will be rain or snow.
A drier-than-normal fall is expected for the Southwest and Southern Plains, which the Climate Prediction Center says will likely worsen drought conditions across those regions.
Hello, La Niña?
Forecasters also expect a La Niña event to develop later this fall. A weather pattern in which water in the tropical Pacific Ocean naturally cools is one of the main drivers of weather in the U.S., especially in the late fall, winter and early spring. It’s the opposite of the better-known El Niño phenomenon.
La Niña winters usually see drier, warmer weather in the southern part of the country and more rain in the north.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is a 71% chance of a La Niña event occurring in September, October, and November. La Niña is expected to continue through January-March 2025, but a strong event is unlikely. And “neutral” conditions are expected to continue into spring.