Shaima, a student from the United Arab Emirates, lives in Abu Dhabi with her four siblings and parents, but says her family of seven is small: Her father grew up with 11 brothers and sisters at a time when families in the region were legendarily large.
The generational shift in the 21-year-old’s family reflects dramatic social changes across the UAE: Emirati women are now having roughly half the number of children their grandmothers did in 1970, and birth rates have fallen from 6.7 children per woman in 1970 to 3.7 in 2017, according to official data.
In a country that has attracted millions of migrant workers to support its breakneck growth economy since the 1960s, the trend has made many Emiratis concerned about being part of a dwindling minority at home and forced authorities to step up support for encouraging larger families.
“We Emiratis are a minority in our own country,” Shaima said, calling the trend “worrisome.” Expatriates make up 93.5 percent of the UAE’s population of about 9.5 million, according to the United Nations.
“Why is demographics a sensitive issue?” says William Geraich, an associate professor at the University of Wollongong in Dubai, “because this imbalance is growing between Emiratis and foreigners, and Emiratis feel increasingly besieged, rightly or not. But this is the general perception, and the authorities have to address it.”
The UAE’s birth rate, which government figures put at 3.2 in 2021, has halved over the past two decades, according to Luca Maria Pessando, an associate professor of social research and public policy at New York University in Abu Dhabi, who described the decline as “very rapid for a demographic transition.”
While 3.2 is above the so-called replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman and the number of UAE nationals is not falling, authorities are concerned about the speed of the decline, said Pesand, who is working on plans to open a state-funded demographic research center at NYU in Abu Dhabi. [in 20 years]It could probably be halved again,” he added.
A former senior UAE government official said it was almost inevitable that the proportion of Emirati minorities among the resident population would decline.
“If we are successful in attracting more people into the country, our rate will automatically decrease,” he said. “How do you counter that? By encouraging people to have more children.”
Governments have traditionally offered generous subsidies to local families, from grants and loans for housing and weddings to marriage counselling and childcare assistance.
But Abu Dhabi’s new Emirati Family Growth Support Programme, the emirate that includes the UAE capital, is focusing on family size, offering incentives such as reduced loan debt for the birth of a fourth, fifth or sixth child.
Hamad Ali Al Dhaheri, Undersecretary for Community Development in Abu Dhabi, said the government wanted to “increase the number of Emirati families, who play a key role in achieving social stability and preserving the national identity.”
The government encourages large families to protect national identity © Christopher Pike/Bloomberg
The UAE does not publish detailed national statistics on population composition. But data from Dubai, the region’s business and tourism hub, shows that expatriate population growth still outpaces that of locals. The number of Emirati residents in Dubai grew 31 percent between 2015 and 2023, while the number of expatriates grew 46 percent.
Most expats are short-term residents and are unlikely to become UAE citizens, but the UAE has in recent years begun offering longer-term visas and encouraging foreigners to buy property and invest in businesses.
The UAE is expecting a further influx of international workers as it pursues ambitious economic plans, with Dubai alone projecting its population to grow from around 3.5 million today to 5.8 million by 2040.
Since Abu Dhabi began exporting oil in the 1960s and Dubai established itself as a trading hub, millions of migrant workers, from domestic helpers to oil engineers and financial professionals, have driven rapid growth. In just a few decades, Abu Dhabi has transformed from an impoverished tribal community into one that enjoys one of the highest standards of living in the region.
According to the World Bank, the UAE is on track to have the second-highest per capita gross domestic product in the Middle East by 2023.
As more women pursue higher education and careers, more are choosing to delay having children © Waleed Zein/Anadolu/Getty Images
But observers say the country’s economic success is the main factor behind the low birth rate. The high cost of living has led some UAE nationals to avoid having children. A government employee and mother of one said she does not plan to have any more children because of the financial burden of childcare, including education.
Scholars also argue that the UAE’s success in encouraging women to pursue higher education, enter the workforce and contribute to the economy has led many women to delay marriage and childbirth, contributing to smaller family sizes.
The UAE has a higher proportion of working women compared to the region as a whole, with 55% of those aged 15 and over participating in the workforce, compared to an average of 19% across the Middle East and North Africa, according to International Labor Organization estimates.
Huda, 30, a museum researcher, said her mother was married at 16 and had nine children, so staying home to raise them was the last thing she wanted.
“[My generation] It was very open. [what we saw in] “We loved American movies and Westerns,” she says. “We wanted independence.”
Other UAE policies to support working mothers, such as extending statutory maternity leave to 60 days, may not be enough to bring back the large families of the past.
“I plan to be a working mother,” said Shaima, who wants to have four children. “You have to balance work with caring for the kids. Having more kids won’t help you.”