Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri shares his keys to victory in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season.
This week’s Pick Up and Play is… Jauan Jennings
Deebo Samuel is expected to miss several weeks for the 49ers. San Francisco is also without Christian McCaffrey and rookie wide receiver Ricky Piersall, who is recovering from a gunshot wound. George Kittle is also questionable for Week 3, with a hamstring injury revealed on Thursday’s injury report.
This leaves the 49ers’ passing game with just two sure things: Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings. Jennings is one of the best run-blocking receivers in the NFL, but he’s also a productive player when given the opportunity in the passing game.
Jennings played over 50% of the snaps in six games for the 49ers last season, scoring 10 or more fantasy points in four of those six games, and he could be available this week against the Rams’ 24th-ranked secondary, per PFF.
This week’s suspicious spot is…Mike Evans vs. Denver
Evans is off to a strong start in his 11th NFL season. Through two games, he has a 23% target share for eight catches, 103 yards and two touchdowns. Per PFF, Evans has primarily played on the outside, running 70% of his routes on the outside.
This outside usage is noteworthy as he faces Patrick Surtin this week. Surtin has played 89% of his snaps on the outside through two weeks. So far this season, Surtin has allowed six catches for 70 yards in coverage. He has been able to contain both DK Metcalf and George Pickens. This is a close call for Evans.
Interesting Trend: Lions vs. Slot Receivers
The Lions have allowed the ball to opposing slot receivers so far this season. Through two weeks, they allowed 22 slot catches for over 250 yards, according to PFF. Last week, Chris Godwin caught six of his seven slot targets for over 100 yards and a touchdown.
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It’s only been two weeks since they’ve faced quality receivers like Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin, so it’s too early to draw any conclusions, but it’s a trend worth watching. In Week 3, the Lions face Cardinals slot receiver Greg Dortch. I don’t have high hopes for Dortch, but in Week 4 they face Jackson Smith-Njiba and in Week 5 they face CeeDee Lamb. These will be important matchups to watch.
This week’s best RB spot is… Brian Robinson Jr. vs. CIN
Robinson’s role has been strong to start the season. He’s played 59% of the Commanders’ snaps and has gotten 74% of the backfield carries. In Week 2, Robinson had 18 touches for 136 total yards. He broke five tackles in the game and currently ranks in the top 10 in tackle breaking this season according to Player Profiler.
Those tackle-breaking stats are important for this week’s opponents. Robinson will be facing a Bengals team that is allowing 160 rushing yards per game this season. But more importantly, the Bengals have struggled with tackling, allowing the sixth-most yards after contact per NFL Pro. Washington is a big underdog, but Robinson can be counted on to have an efficient game.
Chris Godwin is on the rise
Godwin is currently the No. 1 receiver in fantasy football, with 15 catches for 200 yards and two touchdowns through two games, already matching his touchdown total from last season.
Godwin was promised an increased slot usage this year, and that promise has been delivered. Per Dwayne McFarland, Godwin is playing 65% of his snaps from the slot this year. In 2023, that figure was just 32%. He has parlayed this increased slot usage into 10 slot catches for 164 yards and two touchdowns. Godwin leads the NFL in each of these slot categories.
Now, it may be tempting to sell him high, and that’s not a bad idea, but unless you can trade for a tier-one player like Ja’Marr Chase or Saquon Barkley, I would recommend holding on to Godwin.
James Cook is on the rise
Cook scored three touchdowns in Thursday night’s win over the Dolphins, which put him in the top three among fantasy backs in Week 2. Cook only played 47% of the snaps in the game, but that requires more context. The Bills benched Cook after losing by big margins on the final two drives of the game. Excluding those garbage-time drives, Cook had 79% of the carries out of the backfield.
Since play-caller Joe Brady took over in November 2023, Cook is averaging 19.5 touches and 16.5 fantasy points per game. Both numbers were in the top 10 among all running backs last year. Through two weeks, Cook averaged 17 touches for 103 and 95 yards per game. He’s trending upwards and should be a top 10 running back for the remainder of the fantasy season.
Jerome Ford is on the decline
In Week 1, Ford controlled 73% of the Browns’ snaps and 86% of the backfield carries, which led to a strong fantasy day with 15.9 points on 18 touches. In Week 2’s matchup against the Jaguars, who struggled with tackling in their opener, everything was looking good for Ford.
Week 2, however, was a worst-case scenario for Ford, as his snaps dipped to 42% and he only had 26% of the carries in the backfield. Veteran Donta Foreman led the backfield with 14 carries on 38% of the snaps. This was surprising, as Foreman only saw one snap in Week 1. However, he suffered a neck injury in training camp and may not have been ready for a big role to start the season.
The good news for Ford is that he still played the most running back snaps for the Browns and averaged over nine yards per carry in Week 2. He’s a talented back, but it will be tough to start Ford in fantasy if Foreman is going to be this involved going forward.
Brock Bowers is the new elite fantasy TE
He already looks like one of the best TEs in the league. Bowers has been the best TE in college football at the highest level in the SEC for the past three years. He has been outstanding at reading defenses and gaining yards after the catch.
Bowers currently leads all fantasy TEs in points, EPA per play and targets. A 25% target share is impressive, especially considering he’s competing with Davante Adams for targets. But what’s perhaps even more impressive is how successful Bowers is while only running 70% of the team’s routes.
Bowers lines up everywhere so there’s no telling if the defense can stop him. The defense can’t put their best player on him like they do in a receiver vs cornerback matchup. Bowers moves off the line of scrimmage and slides into the slot 50% of the time and moves to the outside 15% of the time. He’s very versatile and just the real deal. To me, Bowers is a top 5 TE for the rest of this season.
This week’s bargain buy is… Diontay Johnson
With second-year QB Bryce Young on the bench, I’ve been looking at Diontaie Johnson again. I believe Young has been the biggest problem for the Panthers offense. The problem wasn’t the WRs, or the offensive line, which is ranked in the top five in pass protection through two games according to PFF.
In Week 2, the Panthers failed to complete 55% of their drives on three straight occasions, with only one lasting more than six attempts. The worst part was that Bryce Young actually had time to throw in this game. But they now have a grown man in QB Andy Dalton on the team, and he’s looked good the last few times he’s started for the Panthers and Saints.
But perhaps most importantly, he knows how an NFL offense works. It’s worth thinking about: Is Dalton the best quarterback Johnson has played with over the last four or five years? It seems like a strange question, but I think the answer is yes. I also think he’s good at getting open and getting targets.
Maybe I’m a weirdo, but I’m buying Johnson stock cheap right now.
This week’s best seller is…JK Dobbins
Dobbins has recorded over 130 rushing yards in each of his first two games. He currently leads the NFL with 266 rushing yards, but those numbers don’t stop there as Dobbins ranks first in rushing EPA and eighth in success rate, according to NFL Pro.
It’s clear he’s played well, there’s no disputing that, but the issue is he’s only had six cheat code opportunities through two weeks. The fantasy cheat codes for running backs are targets and red zone touches. Dobbins has been used sparingly in those areas, which is not a sign of future success.
Dobbins is in top form right now, but he’s not likely to finish the season as the RB1 in fantasy. Currently, Dobbins is sharing the backfield with Gus Edwards, but even if that doesn’t continue, Dobbins’s rating will likely be the highest he’s been this year. Why, you may ask, is because he’ll be facing the Steelers defense in Week 3.
If possible, sell Dobbins high and trade him for someone like Chris Olave.