Employment Change +10% –10% +50% –50%
The U.S. economy has added about 19 million jobs over the past four years — millions more on top of all the jobs lost during the pandemic — and the recovery has been the quickest and most complete in decades, maybe ever.
But it was also uneven.
In some parts of the country, employment bounced back as soon as a vaccine became available, or even sooner, and in many of those places, more people are working and earning more than ever before.
Elsewhere, the recovery has been much slower. As of 2023, more than two in five U.S. counties (43%) have still not regained all of the jobs lost early in the pandemic, according to annual data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some of these places were struggling long before 2020; others were thriving economically only to be thrown off course by a midair shock that few expected.
The geography of this uneven recovery helps shed light on how the pandemic and the policies adopted in response have reshaped the U.S. economy, changing the types of work and where Americans work.
These patterns could have electoral implications: The battleground states that will determine the outcome of November’s presidential election include some of the biggest winners from the economic recovery, but also some losers.
The winners have some things in common: They’re concentrated in the South and Mountain West, especially suburban counties that have thrived in the era of remote and hybrid work.
These counties tend to be areas where job losses were relatively light to begin with, often because their major employers were in industries that were less affected by or benefited from disruptions caused by the pandemic. These counties are, on average, wealthier and better educated than counties that are slower to recover. These counties disproportionately voted for Donald J. Trump in the 2020 Presidential election.
By contrast, the losers tend to be concentrated in big cities that have been hit particularly hard by the pandemic and in rural areas that were struggling long before the virus hit. They are poorer on average, but there are notable exceptions: San Francisco and some of its wealthier neighbors, for example, have yet to recover all the jobs lost during the pandemic.
In many places, leisure and hospitality jobs never came back.
Percentage change in leisure and hospitality jobs from 2019 to 2023. Battleground states are in bold.
Utah
Idaho
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Texas
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Tennessee.
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Wyoming.
North Carolina
SC
Florida.
Colo.
Can.
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New Jersey
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New Mexico
Virginia.
Mo.
Indy
Ohio
N.D.
Dell.
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Alaska
California
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Connecticut
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Hawaii
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The pandemic has also changed the types of jobs Americans have: Restaurants, hotels, movie theaters and other in-person businesses have laid off millions of employees, while warehouses and shipping companies have scrambled to hire to meet soaring demand.
Those changes have been reversed, but slowly and incompletely: In the U.S., truck drivers now make up a larger share of the workforce than in 2019, while the number of waiters is declining.
The economic changes that began early in the pandemic are playing out differently in different parts of the country, including in states that are likely to decide the election. Nevada, which relies more on tourism than any other state, was hit particularly hard by the pandemic, and although Las Vegas is booming again, not all the jobs have returned. This may explain why both presidential candidates have sought to win over the state’s casino workers by promising to repeal the tip tax.
Northern battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania have also seen a slower recovery in hospitality jobs than Sun Belt states like Georgia and Arizona, where pandemic restrictions were lifted earlier.
There is a construction boom
Percentage change in construction employment from 2019 to 2023. Battleground states are in bold.
Idaho
Arizona
Mon.
Utah
arc.
Tennessee.
SD
Nev.
Neb.
Mo.
Maine
North Carolina
NH
Kee.
Florida.
Indy
Whis.
Michigan.
Escape.
Oh.
RI
ore.
Yeh.
Minnesota
Iowa
Can.
wash.
Texas
mass.
New Mexico
Virginia.
Ohio
SC
Dell.
Colo.
Alaska
Vermont
disease.
Connecticut
New Jersey
California
Direct current
Hawaii
okra.
Pa.
Wyoming.
N.D.
Maryland
new york
West Virginia
La.
–5
0
+5
+10
+15
+20
+25
+30%
Government policies have also helped the job market recover. Huge federal investments under President Biden in infrastructure, green energy and high-tech manufacturing have helped rapidly boost manufacturing and heavy construction jobs.
In Nevada, new factory jobs — and the jobs building those factories — have helped shore up a slow recovery in tourism. Arizona is enjoying one of the nation’s biggest construction booms, thanks in part to a giant new semiconductor manufacturing plant funded with federal grants.
Sunbelt states prospered
Percentage change in employment rates by county from 2019 to 2023
Suburban and urban counties
X indicates no data available. Employment Change +5% –5% 0% +20% –20% 0%
Nevada
Thanks in part to these patterns, Sun Belt battleground states have thrived in recent years, at least in terms of job growth. Maricopa County, Arizona, which includes Phoenix and is home to semiconductor factories, is one of the fastest-growing large counties (populations of more than 1 million) in terms of employment. Jackson County, Georgia, is one of the fastest-growing counties of any size, growing by more than 60% since 2019, thanks in part to a major new factory making electric vehicle batteries.
This rapid growth has brought opportunities but also challenges, notably a severe shortage of affordable housing. It is no coincidence that the presidential campaigns of President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have made housing a central part of their economic policy.
“Blue Wall” states performed relatively poorly
Percentage change in employment rates by county from 2019 to 2023
Suburban and urban counties
Employment Change +5% –5% 0% +20% –20% 0%
Wisconsin
Northern “Blue Wall” states face a different set of challenges: They were struggling economically even before the pandemic and have been slower to recover.
Pennsylvania, for example, largely missed out on the construction and manufacturing boom: Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, is the only large county in the nation to see total employment fall by more than 5% since 2019. But the job losses are widespread: 51 of the state’s 67 counties lost jobs between 2019 and 2023.
It’s unclear exactly how these trends will play out on Election Day. Polls suggest voters are worried about the economy across the country, not just in areas where the recovery is weakest. That could be because, at least until recently, many Americans were more worried about the rising cost of living than about finding work.
That may now be changing, as rising unemployment and slowing job growth are starting to show cracks in the labor market’s foundations, especially in states like Pennsylvania where hiring has lagged, but even some fast-growing states have struggling labor markets.
The election will likely be decided by voters in a handful of battleground states, but nearly everywhere looks different than it did four years ago.
In Lee County, Florida, a construction boom has helped make up for a big drop in hotel and restaurant jobs. Portsmouth, Virginia, bucked the national trend and added hospitality jobs, mainly due to the opening of the state’s first permanent casino. McLean County, Illinois, has added thousands of manufacturing jobs in recent years, many of them from electric-car maker Rivian.
See what’s changed in your county:
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Cumulative change in employment since 2019
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2023
construction
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finance
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Methodology
Employment data are average annual employment levels from the Quarterly Employment and Wages Survey published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Totals are all covered employment (public and private). Industry breakdown is for the private sector only.
Population, demographic, and socioeconomic data are taken from the five-year American Community Survey sample from 2016 to 2020. Election results are taken from Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics withholds some data to protect the confidentiality of individual businesses. Data for a small number of counties is not shown because county definitions changed from 2019 to 2023. Employment changes in counties with populations under 500 are not shown on the map.