Kamala Harris’ campaign has sought to inspire joy among voters, and speakers at the Democratic National Convention used the word “joy” dozens of times, including when Bill Clinton praised Harris as a “joy president.”
But how are voters actually feeling? Does the data back up that mood?
Polls have shown a new surge of joy over the election: A New York Times/Siena College survey conducted in July, the week after President Biden withdrew from the nomination, found a surge in joy among voters of both parties, even as anger and resignation subsided.
That euphoria has apparently deepened since then, especially among Democrats: A Times/Siena poll of battleground states in August found that about 80% of Democrats said they were happy with their candidate choice, a big change from just 55% in May.
Overall, how satisfied are you with the candidates selected in this fall’s presidential election?
Of registered voters in six battleground states
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Note: “Satisfied” includes the responses “somewhat satisfied” and “very satisfied,” while “dissatisfied” includes the responses “not very satisfied” and “not at all satisfied.”
But a post-dropout Times/Siena national poll also found that anxiety was voters’ main emotion about the election, with nearly half of Democrats saying so.
There are plenty of reasons for continued uncertainty. Though Harris is ahead of Biden in the polls, the race remains close, and it remains to be seen whether her approval rating will continue to rise beyond the expected uptick after the convention.
Examining the words voters used most frequently to describe their feelings about the election can provide clues about how much mood has fluctuated and how it may continue to change in the future.
The words most frequently used by Democrats to describe their feelings about the election
The size of the circles is based on the percentage of Democrats who responded to each word.
Some parts of social media are awash with coconut tree emojis and green boxes declaring Harris’ “sassy summer.” Democrats’ joy doubled from February to July, and after Biden withdrew, 20% of Democrats’ voters used words expressing happiness, hope and excitement to describe their feelings about the election. Meanwhile, despair among Democrats fell by more than half.
Harris has called herself and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz, “joy warriors,” and in his first speech as the vice presidential candidate, Waltz thanked Harris for “bringing joy back to us.”
“The atmosphere is very excited, that’s for sure,” said Nancy Lohr, 68, a retired piano teacher from Orange County, California, who used the word “excited” to describe her feelings about November. “I think it’s her energy. She’s a bright, energetic person.”
“It’s really exciting that we’ve turned a corner,” she added.
In February, fear and sadness dominated the emotions of Democrats.
They’ve been wrestling with the duality of joy and anxiety this hectic summer. The July poll was conducted the week after Mr. Biden dropped out of the race, and support for Ms. Harris had quickly solidified, though she had not yet formally secured the nomination. Democrats have not only increased their language of joy and hope about the election, but also of anxiety and worry.
In recent weeks, the Harris campaign has sought to allay those fears.
Still, anxiety lingers. “There’s a growing fear that if either party loses, there might not even be a peaceful transition of power,” said Jeff Fitzsimmons, 42, a cattle farmer in Norman County, Minnesota, who described his feelings about the election as “nervous.”
The words most frequently used by Republicans to describe their feelings about the election
The size of the circles is based on the percentage of Republicans who responded to each word.
Democrats are not having all the fun, even as former President Donald J. Trump has struck a darker tone in recent weeks, warning that “bad things” would happen if Harris wins.
Feelings of anger and confusion among Republicans subsided between February and July. By the summer, nearly three in 10 Republicans used words expressing happiness, hope and excitement to describe their feelings about the election, matching the share expressing fear and anxiety, which had remained largely unchanged since February.
The Grand Old Party had its own stars this summer: “Let’s make America rock again,” Trump said in a video shown at a summer music festival headlined by Kid Rock.
“I’m glad there’s a change,” said Stephanie Rose, 61, a Trump supporter from Silver Hill, Alabama, who owns a small cafe and used the word “excited” to describe her feelings about November. “I’m a small business owner, and the Biden administration has really hurt my business.”
The poll was conducted shortly after the assassination attempt on Trump and the Republican National Convention, which may have contributed to the heightened enthusiasm among Republicans, whose supporters witnessed their candidate emerge from the assassination attempt with his fist raised, a sign of defiance reminiscent of heroes in ancient art.
Still, more than 25% of Republican voters in July used words like “scared” or “anxious” to describe their feelings about the election.
Joel Dahlia, 43, an insurance agent from Dublin, Ohio, used the word “anxious” to describe his daughters’ future under Harris.
“I don’t want people to think that getting married makes them weaker women,” Dahlia said. “I don’t want people to live in a world where they can’t own a gun even if they want to. I don’t want people to live in a world where they have to go to the bathroom with other people who identify as women.”
Voter sentiment is likely to continue to fluctuate in the hectic months between now and November, especially as the campaign gets into full swing after Labor Day.
“The stakes are really high in this race,” said Carol Doherty, director of political research at the Pew Research Center. “Any missteps or stumbles will be highlighted even more and could lead to a major shift in public sentiment.”
Sources and Notes
Of the bubble charts of most frequently used words, February data is from a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted Feb. 25-28 among 980 registered voters nationwide. July data is from a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted July 22-24 among 1,142 registered voters nationwide.
Statistics cited for Democrats and Republicans include voters who supported or leaned toward each party in the Times/Siena poll.