Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri highlights the keys to victory in Week 5.
Pick up and play… Dontayvion Wicks
Wicks will have an expanded role in Week 5 when Christian Watson is out. In Week 4, when Watson was out with an injury, Wicks led the Packers with a 25% target share. Overall, he had a team-high 13 targets, which he translated into a 78-yard, two-touchdown performance. Wicks was clearly a priority target for Jordan Love in Week 4.
Wicks ranks fifth in fantasy points per route run so far in 2023, according to Jacob Gibbs. He’s a talented receiver and will likely see more snaps in a strong Week 5 matchup. Wicks will face the Rams, who have allowed the most passing yards per play this season. Three different receivers totaled over 130 yards against Los Angeles this season. You can start playing Wickes with confidence this week.
This week’s best spot is…Brian Thomas Jr. vs. IND
This season, he quietly ranks 12th in efficiency as a rookie. Thomas has scored at least 10 fantasy points in three of his four games this year and has posted two top-20 finishes during that span. That’s impressive considering his QB struggles. Trevor Lawrence ranks 32nd in the NFL in completion percentage, completing only 53% of his passes, and only Anthony Richardson is worse.
Thomas has delivered despite this poor QB play and now has a great matchup. He will face a Colts team that has allowed an average of 100.5 yards per game to their opponent’s No. 1 outside receiver this season. George Pickens just gained 119 yards last week against Indy. We start Thomas in week 5.
This week’s highlights… Breece Hall vs MIN
The hall manager has been under stress for the past few weeks. Since Week 2, Hall has scored 13.3 fantasy points per game and reserve Braylon Allen has scored 10.7 points per game. They spread out the workload more than expected, with Hall gaining just four yards on 10 carries in Week 4.
Run blocking has been a big problem for the Jets. New York ranks 30th in rushing yards per contact this season, according to NFL Pro. That’s not great, and neither is the Jets’ matchup this week. Hall will face the Vikings, who have the third-fewest rushing yards per play. Against Minnesota, the starting running back averaged just 52 yards per game.
You still have to start the hole, but temper your expectations this week.
Chase Brown is on the rise
Brown is coming off his best week of the year. He took a season-high 42% of the snaps for the Bengals and led the backfield in both carries and production. Brown had 17 touches for 92 yards and two touchdowns. Most encouragingly, he completed both carries to the basket from 3 and 1 yards, respectively.
Through four games, Brown leads the NFL in broken tackle percentage and true yards per carry, according to Player Profiler. They also have the fourth-highest light box rate, a trend that should continue as defenses have to focus their attention on Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Brown is on the rise in this Bengals backfield and is a player who should be traded if possible.
Rashid Shahid is on the rise
Shahid finished another strong match. In fact, this was a career-high performance for Shahid in many ways. He had a career-high 11 targets, including eight catches for 83 yards. Through four games, Shahid leads the Saints with a 32% first-read target share, according to Fantasy Points data.
But the most encouraging thing to me is how the Saints are utilizing him. It’s not just for downfield use. Shahid sees a lot of targets in the middle of the field, allowing him to catch and run in space.
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One of the key plays to note in Week 4 was on 3rd-and-3 in the third quarter. As Shahid moved throughout the formation, Derek Carr rolled out and hit Shahid for a 6-yard gain and a first down. Shahid was not used in this way last season. After his zero-point performance in Week 3, he’s trending upward in a big way.
Travis Etienne Jr. is on the decline.
There are beginning to be concerns about Etienne’s role. In Week 4, he took a season-low 51% of snaps, but only 45% of his backfield carries. It is important to note that Etienne left the game several plays into the first half with a shoulder injury. But even considering those missed snaps, this was Etienne’s worst usage of the year.
Bigsby, the backup tank, returned in Week 4 and was back to health. He has not been affected by injuries this season and has played a regular role in two games. In both contests, he outclassed Etienne on the ground. Bigsby is averaging 8.2 yards per touch on 21 carries this season, which ranks second in the NFL. Etienne ranks 36th with an average of 4.6 yards per touch.
This Jaguars offense needs a playmaker right now. Coach Doug Pederson’s job could come in Week 5. We expect him to play with the most productive players, and Bigsby is one of those players at this point. If you can, try trading Etienne.
This week starts withโฆ Roma Odunze vs. CAR
Odunze had a disappointing game. In Week 4 against the Rams, he only had one catch for 10 yards. However, this was not his fault. The Bears’ passing offense struggled due to the offensive line. Caleb Williams didn’t have time to throw, and no Bears receiver was able to get more than 25 yards in Week 4.
But this week is the perfect bounce-back spot for Odunze. He will play against the Panthers, who rank 31st in pass rush through four games, according to PFF. Williams should have plenty of time to throw, with Carolina gaining the sixth-most passing yards per play, according to NFL pros.
One more thing: Keenan Allen returned from injury last week, but Odunze still played ahead of him in the majority of 2WR sets. I’m starting Odunze this week.
This week’s buy price is…Jackson Smith-Nijiba
He currently ranks 22nd in expected fantasy points per game, but only 32nd in actual points, according to PFF. This means that his role is great, but the points are not yet attached. In some cases, these expected points don’t matter if the offense or QB is bad, but that’s not the case with Smith-Nijiva. According to NFL Pro, Seattle ranks 11th in offensive EPA per play, and Geno completes 72% of his passes, ranking second in completion percentage.
Smith-Nijiva had a 23% target share in Week 4. It’s the second time this season he’s gotten at least 23% of his targets. This is the offense I want, and Smith-Njiba is the most affordable piece on the upside. The upcoming two-game schedule against the Giants, Rams and 49ers is attractive.
Buy Smith Nijiba cheap โ send someone like Brian Robinson Jr. or Tony Pollard in his place if possible.
This weekโs backlash isโฆNajee Harris vs. DAL
Harris wasn’t feeling well last week. He gained just 19 rushing yards on 13 carries. However, this requires more context as the Steelers were without three starting linemen. Not only that, but Harris entered Week 4 with an injury. His production was bad on set, but this context is necessary.
Harris will play against the Cowboys this week. This is a strong home matchup, with Dallas allowing the second-highest EPA per rushing attempt this season, according to NFL Pros. Harris has been playing 20 times per game this season. Although he struggles with efficiency, his usage is too good to ignore, especially during a fantasy bye week.
Harris, the starting pitcher, could have a heavier workload with Jalen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson out in Week 5 due to injuries.